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Projection vs. holding

See what a strategy’s backtest numbers could add up to over the months and years ahead, next to simply holding the coin. Every result comes from your numbers and your assumptions. Nothing here is a forecast.

Drag the sliders to see how a strategy’s numbers play out against holding.

Example numbers, not a real strategy

Win rate45%

Average winning trade+6.0%

Average losing trade−3.0%

Profit factor from these numbers: 1.64

Trades per year40

Time in a trade30%

Share of the time the money is in a trade rather than waiting in cash.

Coin’s price change per year while these numbers were measured0%

Leave at 0% if you don’t know. The coin’s share is taken out so it isn’t counted twice.

How lumpy are the results

Same averages, different spread. Lumpier results give a wider range of outcomes.

These are price moves before fees. Your fee is set under your assumptions.

Your assumptions

Time ahead3 years

Starting amount

Currency

Coin

How much the coin swings (volatility per year)47%

BTC: 47% a year over the 3 years to 2026-10-18.

BTC’s typical price change per year0%

Nobody knows this number. Try several. “Backtest pace” is how fast the coin’s price moved during your backtest.

Live decay: share of the backtest’s edge that disappears50%

Backtests overstate live results. On held-out data without re-tuning, 75% of the edge disappeared. Re-tuning when 5PM Worker’s Watchdog flags drift can keep it lower.

Your exchange fee per side0.10%

Check your exchange’s actual fee tier. A higher tier can erase a frequent strategy’s edge.

Staking reward for holding, per year0.0%

Only some coins pay staking, and staked coins can be locked. Leave at 0% if yours doesn’t.

Yield on the strategy’s idle cash, per year0.0%

What the money earns while out of a trade, if anything.

Share of money in each trade100%

Spot only, so 100% at most. The rest waits in cash.

Same settings, different luck.

Calculating…

What this does not know

It is not a forecast. It repeats the numbers you give it under the coin growth you choose.
Backtests overstate live results. The decay setting is your estimate of how much of the edge survives.
The edge is treated as independent of market direction. Measured on 32 coins it barely moved with it, but time in a trade rose a little in rallies, so strong rallies may be understated for the strategy.
Coin paths are random with steady volatility taken from past prices (to 2026-10-18). Real markets have sharper crashes and calmer stretches.
Taxes are not included.
Staking rewards vary and can stop, and staked coins can be locked or lost.

For education only. Not investment advice. Past and simulated results do not promise future ones.